Endemic Mediterranean seagrasses poised to survive climate change challenges.

Understanding the current and future trajectories of critical habitats is essential for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management, especially in semi-enclosed environments such as the Mediterranean Sea. Endemic habitats in the Mediterranean, such as Posidonia meadows, are crucial for marine biodiversity, nutrient cycling, oxygen production, and carbon sequestration. Here, using in situ benthic chamber measurements of Posidonia meadows integrated with remote sensing data, we developed predictive models of key metabolic traits and upscale their ecosystem service predictions under current and future climate scenarios in the Mediterranean basin. We highlight the essential role of Posidonia meadows in providing ecosystem services, such as oxygen production, CO₂ absorption, and carbon fixation, which are projected to increase, suggesting that Posidonia meadows may have some capacity to cope with future ocean warming. However, we also emphasize the importance of other stressors in determining the fate of these key habitats. Our study provides critical insights for guiding coastal management and conservation efforts, contributing to a broader understanding of ecosystem functioning in the Mediterranean Sea. Finally, to illustrate the applicability of our findings, we provide an interactive Shiny app that allows users to spatially explore and estimate the ecosystem services provided by specific Posidonia meadows throughout the Mediterranean Sea.

© 2026 The Author(s). Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.