The COVID-19 pandemic: diverse contexts; different epidemics-how and why?

Mohamed Ali Ag Ahmed, Yibeltal Assefa, Steve Ahuka-Mundeke, Placide Mbala, Jean-Jacques Muyembe-Tamfum, N S Prashanth, Sameh Al-Awlaqi, Andreas Kalk, Peter Aaby, Helmut Kloos, Kéfilath Bello, Vincent De Brouwere, Kristien Verdonck, Joël Arthur Kiendrébéogo, Wim Van Damme, Ian Van Engelgem, Gerald Bloom, Devadasan Narayanan, Stefaan Van der Borght, Seye Abimbola, Por Ir, Jean-Paul Dossou, Remco van de Pas, Guido Vanham, Edwin Wouters, Brecht Ingelbeen, Alexandre Delamou, Ritwik Dahake

Journal: BMJ global health 2020;5(7):e003098

PMID: 32718950

Free Full Text on HighWire View on PubMed

Abstract

It is very exceptional that a new disease becomes a true pandemic. Since its emergence in Wuhan, China, in late 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, has spread to nearly all countries of the world in only a few months. However, in different countries, the COVID-19 epidemic takes variable shapes and forms in how it affects communities. Until now, the insights gained on COVID-19 have been largely dominated by the COVID-19 epidemics and the lockdowns in China, Europe and the USA. But this variety of global trajectories is little described, analysed or understood. In only a few months, an enormous amount of scientific evidence on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 has been uncovered (knowns). But important knowledge gaps remain (unknowns). Learning from the variety of ways the COVID-19 epidemic is unfolding across the globe can potentially contribute to solving the COVID-19 puzzle. This paper tries to make sense of this variability-by exploring the important role that context plays in these different COVID-19 epidemics; by comparing COVID-19 epidemics with other respiratory diseases, including other coronaviruses that circulate continuously; and by highlighting the critical unknowns and uncertainties that remain. These unknowns and uncertainties require a deeper understanding of the variable trajectories of COVID-19. Unravelling them will be important for discerning potential future scenarios, such as the first wave in virgin territories still untouched by COVID-19 and for future waves elsewhere.

Address: Department of Public Health, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerpen, Belgium [email protected].; Independent Researcher, Bengaluru, India.; Africa Centre of Excellence for Prevention and Control of Transmissible Diseases, Gamal Abdel Nasser University of Conakry, Conakry, Guinea.; Department of Public Health, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerpen, Belgium.; Department of Sociology and Centre for Population, University of Antwerp, Antwerpen, Belgium.; Centre for Health Systems Research and Development, University of the Free State-Bloemfontein Campus, Bloemfontein, Free State, South Africa.; Biomedical Department, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerpen, Belgium.; Biomedical Department, University of Antwerp, Antwerpen, Belgium.; Public Health, Centre de recherche en Reproduction Humaine et en Démographie, Cotonou, Benin.; National Institute of Public Health, Phnom Penh, Cambodia.; School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.; The George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.; Board Member, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerpen, Belgium.; Health Systems Transformation Platform, New Delhi, India.; Health and Nutrition Cluster, Institute of Development Studies, Brighton, UK.; European Commission Directorate General for Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo.; University of Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada.; Public Health, University of Ouagadougou Health Sciences Training and Research Unit, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.; Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Medical Faculty and University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA.; INDEPTH Network, Bandim Health Project, Bissau, Guinea-Bissau.; Bureau GIZ à Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo.; Center for International Health Protection, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.; Health Equity Cluster, Institute of Public Health, Bengaluru, India.; Institut National de Recherche Biomédicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo.; School of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.

DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003098

Link outs

Free resources

Full Text Sources:

Medical:

https://medlineplus.gov/globalhealth.html

Miscellaneous:

https://assays.cancer.gov/CPTAC-438

MeSH Terms: Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, China, Coronavirus Infections, Europe, Global Health, Humans, Infection Control, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919, Influenza, Human, Pandemics, Pneumonia, Viral, SARS-CoV-2, United States